(Much of this is cross-posted from my comments on daveberta.ca)
I can't remember a time the Tories seemed so vulnerable. Wild Rose taught an entire generation of Albertans it's okay to vote against the PC party, and Danielle Smith managed to make those voters mad at herself AND Jim Prentice. There's only one opposition party that doesn't seem to be in disarray, so if Notley catches on during a campaign she might be able to overcome the branding issues the NDP have traditionally had in this province, organizing the anti-government vote to NDP candidates.
The Tories won the last election by triangulating progressives' fears of Wild Rose. Those progressive voters exist. Don Iveson and Naheed Nenshi aren't mayors by accident. The face of this province has changed.
Jim Prentice seemed pretty smooth during the leadership, but between Bill 10 and Look in the Mirror, he's increasingly appearing out of touch. If you were to look for a big-oil plutocrat straight from central casting, you could do far worse than finding Jim Prentice. Give electors one #PrenticeBlamesAlbertans moment during the writ period, and it's going to get very interesting very quickly.
I can't wait!