Revolutionary Moderation

The byelection to watch

There's a great deal of talk about watching the Calgary Elbow byelection tonight, as a read on the future of both the Premier ("How bad does he suck to lose Elbow?") and the Leader of the Opposition ("How bad does he suck that he can't win in the face of all the disaffection with the Premier?"). I think Drumheller-Stettler may be much more telling.

The Liberals didn't even put up a candidate in D-S in 2004. Shirley McClelland won almost 65% of the vote, with the Alberta Alliance coming second with 14%, the NDP third with 9%, and three fringe parties divvying up the remaining 13%. So, although a Tory win seems inevitable, the results there may be indicators toward a more province-wide problem the Tories are going to face in the next election, and whether the Liberals are the real contenders or not. If the Alberta Alliance makes significant gains, it's a good indication that Stelmach has as much to worry about from the rural base of the party as he does from the cities. At the same time, if the NDP comes out ahead of the Liberals, that tells me that the Liberals will never make a real breakthrough in the rurals, which is probably enough to keep them from winning an election.

Of course, if the Tories can't win in Drumheller-Stettler at all, the serious winds of change are blowing.