Revolutionary Moderation

Cover

It's beginning to become clear that neither the NDP nor the Conservatives are particularly interested in going to an election right now.

The Tories are still attempting to write a negative script about Micheal Ignatieff, because neither the one where he's a foreigner (born in Kenya, perhaps?) nor the one where he's in bed with"the socialists and the separatists" seems to be sticking. I think they'd like more time to try to brand him. (It's also worth nothing that even as a negative narrative stuck much more successfully to Dion, it still wasn't enough to get the CPC the majority they crave so badly.)

The NDP have more seats than ever, and many in the party have very long memories of what's happened to these sizable caucuses in the past - Canadians tire of minority governments and all but wipe the NDP out trying to create a majority. I'm not sure this history is likely to repeat, but the psychological scars remain. Further, Canadians don't seem too keen on a fall election, so for the NDP to prop up the government for a few months or even issue to issue leaves the party smelling like a rose. Finally, when Harper next goes down his inevitable path of power-hungry jackassery, Layton gets to be the hero who pulls the plug on the government.

So that's what the changes to EI are all about - the Conservatives have to offer Layton some cover to hide behind, and adding a few extra weeks of payments for the formerly long-term employed is just about the tiniest fig leaf of an excuse to vote with the government as I could imagine. But given how badly the NDP wants to find an excuse, it'll probably do.