Revolutionary Moderation

More on merger madness



I can't find the quote online, so allow me to paraphrase. John Manley, in Calgary yesterday, was asked for his thoughts on the merger. He suggested that the new Conservative party would pose no serious threat to the Liberals, because Canadians like their moderate parties, and tend to replace governments with other moderate parties only when they see the current government as too lazy, incompetent, arrogant, corrupt, or some combination thereof. (Aside to Manley: if you were Liberal leader, I might have even considered flipping my vote - you're clearly a wise fellow. Ever considered writing a blog? Paul Martin does it.)



This is the trap that will cause this pattern to be repeated in the future - to become moderate enough to be electable, the Conservative Party will have to become too moderate for members in Alberta, who will leave the Tories and start up the Progressive Social Credit Reform Alliance, splitting the right once more.



But in the short term, the unification might be enough to give Martin a run for it come next election. It will certainly be good for the country to have another truly national party, though I have to admit this is going to be bad for the NDP, who stood to gain several seats when the larger outcome of the next general election looked certain. Third parties tend to suffer as people organize their vote around potential winners that seem more palatable to them, when there's an actual contest.