Welcome to the second, less frequently-posted decade of RevMod.

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Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Great Googly Moogly!

Belinda Stronach must be really brave, to follow through with the courage of her convictions the way she did today.

Heh. But seriously, folks....

What is Stronach doing crossing the floor? Sure, she gets to walk into cabinet, but how long will that last? Even if her defection manages to prop up the government, we're headed for election in less than a year, and the fortunes of the Liberals are seriously in doubt. As a Tory, her seat was assured - if she could win with the Conservatives in southern Ontario last election, she was going to have no trouble winning the seat again this time around. Now, her opponents are going to come with all guns blazing to attack her as a political opportunist with no loyalty and no guarantee that voters know what they're getting if they cast a ballot for her. And of course, the Liberals don't appear to be the best bet to win the next election, so even if she hangs on to her seat, that's the end of cabinet for her.

From a purely tactical standpoint, all I can think of is that she has her eyes on the big prize - Prime Minister of a majority Liberal government, about two elections out. And why not? Martin won't be long for it if he loses the next election, and there's been much discussion that there's no obvious next leader. Meantime, Harper can't realistically be hoping for more than a minority government, and the first time his caucus pressures him into a vote on some socially conservative issue, Canadians are not going to react well, the opposition will line up against, and even if Harper uses the same flexible interpretation of what a confidence vote is that we seem to be using now, an election would be tough to avoid.

Look, I'm not complaining. I seem to be about the only one in the blogosphere, maybe almost the only one in the country, but I would be perfectly content to let Gomery report before we have an election. I'm not convinced we'll make the best decision as an electorate right now, in the heat of the moment. I'm looking forward to the Liberals taking a much-needed break from governing, but a vote taken in frustration and anger could send the pendulum swinging much further than Canadians really intend, and we'd be much more susceptible to being emotionally manipulated. But if I'm right, if Stronach is making the gamble I think she is, it's a huge gamble, and it's a longshot.

edited to add: belinda.ca seems to be down for a paint job. I'm thinking something in red. But meanwhile, if you want to read all her old anti-Martin, anti-liberal posts, here's an excellent place to start.

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